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In the Asian market on Monday (December 11),爆炸资讯 the US dollar index remained firm and is now reported near the 104.00 mark. Last Friday, the strong US non -agricultural employment report stimulated the US dollar to strengthen.Well -known financial website FXDAILYREPORT analyst Nicholas Kitonyi wrote an analysis of the trend of the US dollar market outlook.
Kitonyi wrote in the article that last Friday, the US dollar index continued to rise. After the announcement of US employment data, it rose to 104.24, and then fell to 104.04.The US dollar index seems to have completed the upward breakthrough from the rising channel.
Kitonyi added that the US dollar index has now rebounded to the 100 -hour mobile average.Therefore, the US dollar index seems to enter the over -buy status of the relatively strong and weak index (RSI) for 14 hours.
The latest data released last Friday shows that the employment growth of the United States accelerated in November and the unemployment rate declined, showing the potential power of the labor market, and the US dollar went up.The US dollar index rose 0.3%on Friday to 104, and the 104.24 high was reached during the session.
The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that November of Non -Agricultural Employment increased by 199,000, surpassing 180,000 people predicted by analysts, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%.The unexpected and powerful data represents the prediction of the market's predictions on the Fed as soon as the first quarter of next year.
Steve Englander, the Standard Chartered Bank Globe Foreign Exchange Research Director, said: "So far, the data is not enough to force the Federal Reserve to change the wait -and -see position, and the market is obviously standing on the other side."
After the data was announced, the US short -term interest rate futures traders cut the betting of interest rate cuts in March. Now it is believed that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in May.The probability of starting interest rate cuts in March was originally 60%, and the non -agricultural was released to less than 50%.
Stephen Miran, co -founder of AmberWave Partners, said: "In the short term, I think the US interest rate market's view on the Federal Reserve has been too pigeon. Since the beginning of November, the financial situation has been greatly alleviated, which basically means that the Fed does not need to reduce interest rates to fire on the fire.","
Two pictures look at the US dollar technology prospects
As far as short -term trends are concerned, Kitonyi said that according to the 60 -minute map, the US dollar index seems to have recently completed the upward breakthrough from the rising channel.The 14 -hour relative strength index (RSI) also seems to support the bullish tendency because it is close to the super -buying state.
As a result, the US dollar's long -headed extension to the current rise to 104.13 or higher to 104.26.On the other hand, the short US dollar index will make a profit at about 103.90, or as low as 103.76.
(60 minutes map of the dollar index)
Kitonyi pointed out that on the daily chart, the US dollar index seems to be traded in a rising channel.However, before meeting the super -buying conditions, there seems to be a lot of operating space on the 14th index on the 14th.
Therefore, the multi -headed rebound will rebound to 104.59, or as high as 105.32.On the other hand, the long -term profit target is set at about 103.37, or as low as 102.62.
(Daily map of the dollar index)