Renminbi exchange rate rises, is the US dollar fixed deposit or a good choice?

Author | "Finance" reporter Yan Qinwen Editor | Yuan Man  

Although the US dollar deposit interest rate provided by some banks is moment informationmore than 5%, which is higher than the RMB deposit interest rate, the current US dollar exchange rate against the RMB is still located in the historic high range. Customers need to fully consider the risk of exchange loss caused by the depreciation of the US dollar when allocation of US dollar deposits.

"Recently, the RMB exchange rate has risen. If the amount of US $ 50,000 this year is useless, you can consider getting on the car!" In 2023, the US dollar deposit that has attracted much attention due to the high interest rate level is still the hot -selling product of the bank wealth management manager circle at the end of the year.Essence

According to observations, the state -owned bank and shareholders who have experienced interest rate declines in the middle of the year have basically not more than 3%of the US dollar deposit interest rate;The above can reach up to 5.3%, causing investors' attention.

On the other hand, the current RMB deposit interest rate of commercial banks is generally below 3%.According to the statistics of Rong 360 Digital Science and Technology Research Institute, the average interest rate of the period of one-year RMB is between 1.849%-2.062%; the three-year period is between 2.582%-2.816%(October data).

At the same time as the US dollar deposit has attracted much attention, it is difficult to ignore the recent exchange rate changes.Since November, the exchange rate on the shore and offshore has changed the trend of the previous two months of sidewalking and continued to pick up.Entering December, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly.On December 11, the RMB closed at the shore was reported at 7.1770, a decrease of 163 points compared to the previous trading day; on December 12, the RMB closed at the Shore of RMB 7.1744, an increase of 26 points from the previous trading day.

According to Liu Xiaoshu, chief economist of Qingdao Bank, although the current US dollar deposit interest rate provided by some banks is more than 5%, which is still much higher than the RMB deposit interest rate, the current US dollar index and the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate are still in the historical high level.When allocating US dollar deposits, especially when providing medium and long -term US dollars, the risk of exchange loss caused by the depreciation of the US dollar must be fully considered.

Is it a good time to purchase US dollar deposits in a complex exchange rate change environment?

RMB exchange rate recovery VS dollar fixed deposit high interest rate

"Recently, there are quite a few customers who have asked US dollar deposits." The financial manager of a city commercial bank in Shanghai revealed that compared with other financial income, the interest rate of US dollar deposits is relatively high.With the recovery of the RMB exchange rate, some investors choose to enter the market recently.

Ms. Gong, who works in Shanghai, has a plan to change the US dollar. "Compared with the previous high point of about 7.3, it can save thousands of yuan now.There are 500 US dollars, but the premise is that the exchange rate fluctuations this year should not be too large. "

What level is the current US dollar deposit interest rate?Taking the Shanghai area as an example, some small and medium -sized banks at present are more than 5%.

According to a staff member of a certain outlets in Shanghai, Nanjing, the annual interest rate of one -year US dollar deposit of $ 10,000 has been maintained at a $ 10,000 of the bank this year."Compared to RMB deposits, this interest rate is still very good." The above -mentioned staff said that at present, the deposit interest rate of the three -year and 50,000 yuan deposit of the bank is 2.75%; and the one -year and 10,000 yuan RMB startsThe deposit interest rate is 2.15%.

Xiamen International Bank's 1 -year US dollar deposit interest rate is also 5%, but the contribution amount is $ 7,000.According to a wealth management manager of a certain outlet in Shanghai in the bank, the bank's US dollar deposit interest rate has experienced two rounds of reduction, which has reached up to 5.45%before, and it may be adjusted in the future.

The US dollar deposit rate given by another city commercial bank is higher.According to a staff member of the Bank of Beijing, a website of a website in Shanghai, the bank's one -year US dollar deposit interest rate can reach 5.25%, the three -month and 6 -month -old US dollar deposits are 5.15%, and the storage amount is $ 10,000.

Compared with the above Chinese -funded banks, the US dollar deposit interest rate of foreign banks is more "attractive."According to the feedback of a staff member of Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai, the bank's one -year US dollar deposit interest rate can reach 5.3%.However, the staff member said that only new account opening customers can enjoy this interest rate, at the same time, the deposit amount is 20,000 US dollars, and the account balance is required to reach at least 500,000 yuan.

Some investors also set their sights on Hong Kong, China. Recently, many banks in the region have launched limited -time preferential activities.Taking ICBC Asia as an example, for new funds for wealth management funds, the preferential interest rate of $ 98 can reach 5.38%of the 98 -day US dollar deposit, starting from $ 100,000."The need to invest in U.S. stocks before and has the cost of helping children pay for studying abroad. It will always change to purchase US dollars according to the exchange rate. Such short -term deposit prices are good, which is more suitable for me." A investor said.

"Mainly to take the reserve." When asked why the US dollar deposit interest rate was so high, a city commercial bank staff admitted that in recent years, due to the Fed's interest rate hike, the US dollar interest rate has risen rapidly, and it has been promoted to the US dollar deposit rate.The high interest rate is nothing more than we make less. "

Market fluctuations are constantly, do not despise exchange rate risks

In fact, from last year to the first half of this year, the US dollar deposit interest rate had experienced "soaring."According to previous reports, earlier this year, more than 5%of US dollar deposits interest rates were not unusual in Chinese banks, and state -owned banks also launched nearly 5%US dollar deposit products.In early July, a number of banks represented by large state -owned actions decreased the interest rate of US dollar deposits, basically from more than 4%to about 2.8%, which was not small.

In this context, it still maintains the attention of investors at a higher level of US dollars.However, in the context of the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate, is it necessary to "get on the car" at this moment?

In the view of Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at Everbright Bank Financial Market, investors who have excess US dollar in their hands and investors who do not need to consider USD liquidity issues for a long time can consider partially allocated US dollar deposits;For ordinary investors who exchanged US dollars back to RMB after expiry, investing in US dollar deposits need to consider the risk and liquidity convenience of exchange rate fluctuations.

"On the one hand, the current market expects that the US dollar rate hikes have peaked. Next year, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to enter the interest rate cut channel. Under the influence of the US dollar interest rate from rising to falling and stable RMB interest rates, the convergence of Sino -US interest spread will drive the RMB value to rise to a certain extent.On the other hand, the changes in the scale of international trade based on the US dollar settlement are the key factor in the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar. In 2024, the United States replenishment may support the continued improvement of China's exports.To a certain positive role. Currently, the exchange rate fluctuations offset the possibility of the benefits brought by the interest rate difference between the deposit. "Liu Xiaoshu analyzed that in addition, it is necessary to consider the price difference between banks' foreign exchange purchase and foreign exchange settlement prices.

Mr. Yu, who worked in Shenzhen, purchased a settlement period of $ 10,000 in June this year. At that time, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell below the 7.2 mark at that time, and the exchange rate was 7.26 when he exchange the US dollar.Since November, the RMB has continued to rise to the US dollar.

It is worth noting whether the high interest rate of US dollar deposits continues is not clear.With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate hike rhythm, market bets will cut interest rates next year, the US economic recovery slows down, and the short -term pressure on the US dollar constitutes pressure.

A person who engaged in insurance business in Hong Kong, China said that according to its long -term monitoring data, the US dollar deposit interest rate of some banks in Hong Kong recently declined. "It's another scene. "

"The US dollar deposit interest rate is mainly influenced by the Fed's monetary policy. The current US inflation situation has improved, and the employment market is weakening. Many economic indicators are lower than market expectations. The Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike conditions may be touched.The possibility of interest rate hikes, but the focus of economists and the market has turned to when and how much how much and how much will the Fed fall. CME (Chicago Commodity Exchange) data shows that the Federal Reserve's probability of first interest rate cuts in March 2024It has reached 58.4%. "Liu Xiaoshu pointed out.

Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of the trend, with the impact of the Fed's radical interest rate hikes, the influence of the lag of interest rate hikes has gradually appeared, the foundation of American household consumption has weakened, etc., the US economic prospects have slowed down; the prospect of US interest rates has gradually fallen (currently the market bets on the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates next year), and it is just that they will just pay interest rates next year).It is said that the interest rate of US dollar deposits may fall in the future. Investors need to prevent the US dollar and the interest rates weakened, but this process may have a certain amount of twists and turns.

Zhou Maohua added: "Due to the high uncertainty of the US economy and inflation, when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has adopted economic data forward -looking. At present, American inflation continues to deviate from 2.0%, US salary, service prices and geopolitical conflicts.In terms of U.S. inflation prospects still have uncertainty, the Fed is cautious about the expected guidance of interest rate cuts. "

For investors, in the context of large exchange rate fluctuations, investment points and strategies are particularly important.

Liu Xiaoshu suggested that investors with relatively balanced asset allocation, currently holding idle US dollars, and individuals who have regularly used the need for remittances under the demand for reality under the future in the future, the future of US dollar deposits will not have much room for further rise, and it can be based on the setting.The investment period of investment considers the purchase of regular deposits in the US dollar to lock in higher yields; for domestic residents with a higher cost and opportunity cost, the risk of depreciation of the US dollar and the low tolerance of exchange losses, at this timeThe risk of benefits is low.