On Monday (December 11),frontline information the Asian city in the Asian City, the US dollar index maintained a long trend at 103.95, and the gold slightly rebounded to 2006 US dollars, but the lowest hit hit 2003 US dollars, close to falling below the US $ 2,000 integer mark.This week, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss Central Bank, the British Central Bank and the European Central Bank will issue resolutions, and they are expected to "suspend interest rate hikes", but last week's Non -Agricultural Employment Report (NFP) in the United States was unexpectedly dazzling, which will support the release of Federal Reserve President Powell this week.Eagle faction, suppress the precious metal pigeon camp.
This week's headline news will be the Federal Reserve, which will occupy a macro -control throne on Wednesday.It is generally expected that the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) meeting will continue to suspend interest rate hikes, and the third consecutive meeting will maintain the federal fund target range at 5.25%-5.50%.At present, the market pricing shows that about 110 basis points reduced interest rate cuts in 2024, which is lower than 125 basis points after the US non -agricultural employment report that is higher than consensus last Friday.
Last Friday, the US Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the non -agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 199,000 in November, higher than the general expected 185,000, and much higher than the previous value of 150,000.It should be noted that some reasons for the re -acceleration of employment growth are the return of strike workers in the Hollywood and automotive industries.At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate in November was 3.7%, which was lower than the expected value of 3.9%, which was also declining from 3.9%in October.The number of unemployed workers has actually decreased by 215,000 to 6.3 million.
It is also important that the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in March fell from 65.0%to 53.0%, although the interest rate cut in May is still mainly 25 basis points.Obviously, traders will find clues to interest rate cuts at this week's meeting. Although many departments claim that the Fed is unlikely to launch any over -pigeon information in view of the goal of inflation is still higher than 2%.
Therefore, this week's focus is on the interest rate statement and economic prediction abstract (SEP).The market may still remember that the economic forecast in September shows that by the end of 2023, the final growth rate will be 5.6%, and by the end of 2024, the final growth rate will be 5.1%.In addition, people will pay attention to economic predictions of growth, unemployment and inflation.SEP in September shows that the actual GDP growth rate is 1.5%by the end of 2024, the unemployment rate will rise to 4.1%at the same time, and the core PCE inflation rate will slow to 2.6%.
On Thursday, the three major central banks will become the focus of attention.The Swiss central bank will announce the latest policy changes, and the policy interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%.This is the result of the interest rate suspension in September. In the previous incidents, the market had their own opinions. Half of the people called on 25 basis points to raise interest rates to 2.00%, and the rest were happy to maintain the original.
The Bank of England will hold a meeting, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged. For the third consecutive meeting, the bank interest rate is maintained at 5.25%, which is a 15 -year high.In terms of economic data, recent data showed that inflation and cooling down, the inflation rate of the title during the same period fell to 4.6%, and the inflation rate of core indicators fell to 5.7%.The British Bank of the United Kingdom seems to be increasingly similar to the major central banks, and it is expected that interest rates will maintain a higher level for a longer period of time; the European Central Bank and the Fed may be earlier in March.The market may still remember that British President Andrew Bailey said that it is too early to consider interest rate cuts.Therefore, it can be expected that the attached policy statement will repeat this sentence, that is, the policy will continue to maintain restrictions so that inflation will return to the target level.
The European Central Bank will issue resolutions shortly after the Bank of the British Central Bank. It is expected that all three key benchmark interest rates will remain unchanged at the second consecutive meeting. According to market pricing, the probability is 90%.The market will notice that inflation pressure has recently weakened significantly, down to 2.4%in the 12 months as of November, and core indicators have also dropped from 4.2%in October to 3.6%.Interestingly, Isabel Schnabel, one of the more eagle members in the management committee, said that the changes in core inflation are very significant.Schunabel added that the recent inflation data shows that the possibility of raising interest rates again is "quite impossible."After this remark, interest rate cuts are expected to accelerate, and 25 basis points in March have become possible.
The day before FOMC interest rate decision, US inflation data will be released on Tuesday.The news is unlikely to have a much impact on Wednesday's interest rate announcement, but it may affect future policy decisions.Compared with the same period of 2022, the overall inflation rate is expected to fall to 3.1%in November, and the core inflation rate is expected to reduce from 4.1%to 4.0%at the same time.
British employment data will also be monitored on Tuesday, but the current estimates of employment data have not been announced.Nevertheless, as far as wages are concerned, in the three months of October, the salary does not include the bonus is expected to slow to 7.4%, and the salary includes a bonus that is expected to drop from 7.9%to 7.8%.
The British GDP will be released on Wednesday, and it is expected that the British economy will shrink -0.1%in October, which is lower than 0.2%in September.It is worth noting that according to the latest preliminary data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), the British economy performed flat in the third quarter.The market will get the final data of the third season at the end of December, although it is unlikely to have much impact.
Australian employment data will be announced on Thursday. According to the current estimate, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8%, and employment growth in November will slow to more than 10,000, lower than 55,000 in October.It is also worth noting that the participation rate is expected to drop to 66.9%, slightly lower than the previously announced 67.0%.
On Friday, the initial value of the global manufacturing and service industry in the euro zone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will receive widespread attention.
U.S. dollar technology analysis: US dollar multi -intervention, but the shortness is still dominant
FxStreet analyst Patricio Martín said the indicators on the daily diagram reflect the short -term contradictions of the US dollar.The relatively weak index (RSI) position is at a positive slope, although in a negative area.This shows that the momentum of buying is increasing, but it is not enough to bring a clear recovery.On the other hand, the histogram of the mobile average convergence difference (MACD) indicators depicts a similar green column diagram, which indicates that selling pressure is declining.
Regarding the simple mobile average (SMA), the index is located near the 20th mobile average, but below the 100 -day mobile average.Nonetheless, as far as the 200 -day mobile average is concerned, it is clear that the index is running in the area in the area.
The toughness of the bulls, coupled with short breathing, implies that the selling force may be losing its dominant position for the power of buying.However, the US dollar index needs to continue to exceed the 100 -day mobile average in order to change the current selling momentum.Prior to this, the overall technical prospects still temporarily maintained a downward balance.
"The support level is at 103.50 and 103.30, and the resistance levels are 104.40, 104.50 and 104.70 at 104 and 100 -day moving average."
U.S. dollar/yen technical analysis: Does the Bank of Japan lose caution?
FXEMPIRE analyst Bob Mason said that the recent trend of the US dollar/yen may depend on the US consumer price index report and the Federal Reserve, Japan's GDP data (GDP) is weaker than expected, and the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's steering is also considered factors.EssenceThe Eagle Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, who are not willing to get rid of the negative interest rate, may promote buyers' demand for US dollars/yen.
On the daily chart, the USD/yen is maintained below the 50 -day moving average, and at the same time, it is kept above the 200 -day moving average.The US dollar/yen return to the 145 mark will support it to move towards 146.649 resistance.Japan's economic indicators, the Comment of the Bank of Japan, and the United States' inflation data may be the focus.
However, falling below the 144.713 support level will play a role in the 200 -day moving average.The 14 -day RSI was 34.34, indicating that the US dollar/yen fell below 144.713 support before entering the oversold area.
On the 4 -hour chart, the US dollar/yen is below the 50th and 200 days, and the price signal is issued.The return of the US dollar/yen will make the bulls run on the 146.649 resistance level.
However, falling below the 144.713 support level will see the 142.177 support level.The 14 -hour RSI is 43.22, indicating that the US dollar/yen fell below the 144 mark before entering the oversold area.
Gold Technology Analysis: Short continues to control the situation of the situation 2000 control
FXEMPIRE analyst Aaron Hill said that gold recovered the rise last weekend and entered the decline area, with a decline of 3.3%, and many technical experts appeared on the weekly diagram.This form is concentrated in the upper shadow/lower shadow line, not the entity in the form.
The market can also be observed from the weekly framework that Gold now obviously has a resistance position near the previous historical high 2075 US dollars, which can include March 2022 highs 2070 US dollars and May 2023 highs 2067 US dollars.Form the resistance area.
Given that there is still space to find lower areas before the weekly supporting level, and the relatively weak index (RSI) of the weekly diagram has recently established a negative departure, and subsequent selling may occur this week.Adventure falling below the above support position may also illuminate the support level of $ 1898 south.
After the outer reverse candle was separated from historical highs last Monday, the price trend entered a state of low degree.Of course, until the significant low of last Friday, the buyer broke away from the above trend line support and tested the level of $ 2,000 that he received wide attention.Looking forward to the future, we need to pay attention to the support level of 1989 US dollars, and then another support level of $ 1965, located below the $ 1969 per week.
Because the weekly framework of this week shows the decline space, it is possible to overthrow the psychological level of $ 2,000 and the adjacent $ 1989 daily support.This may open the door to breaking the opportunity of selling, breaking the weekly supporting position of $ 1969/daily supporting level 1965 US dollars.