Bangda Asia: The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut expectations to heating up the US dollar index sharply fell sharply



  The热门新闻 Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, and in the new economic forecast, it has hinted that the historic currency tightening policy of the United States has ended in the past two years, and the cost of loan in 2024 will be reduced.In the latest policy statement, the Federal Reserve decision makers have clearly acknowledged the fact that inflation "has eased in the past year" and stated that it will observe the economy to determine whether the "any" further interest rate hike action is required-this obviously implies, it obviously implies, it is obviously implied,, it obviously implies, obviously implies, obviously implies, it is obviously implied, and it is obviously implied.After a few months of radical tightening policies and inclined to raise interest rates, they may not need to raise interest rates again.In fact, 17 of the 19 Federal Reserve decision makers are predicted. By the end of 2024, the policy interest rate will be lower than the current level-forecast medium value shows that the policy interest rate range will decrease from the current 5.25%-5.50%basis points.EssenceNo decision -makers believe that interest rates will rise before the end of next year.The latest forecast also shows that decision makers believe that the risk of inflation and employment is more balanced, which is the two major tasks of the Federal Reserve.After the policy statement and forecast release, the futures contract dealers who track the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates have increased the possibility of interest rate cuts in March next year to more than 60%.

  In addition, data released by the British Statistics Bureau shows that the British economy has undergone unexpected downturn. In October, the GDP in October fell by 0.3%, and the increase in September by 0.2%was repaired to zero growth.The growth is blocked by the three major departments of the British economy, which is driven by 0.2%of the 79%service industry in Britain.The monthly increased 0.4%decreased by 0.5%.Industrial production and construction are considered leading indicators of the commercial cycle.The scale of industrial production is only 0.6%higher than the low after the epidemic. If it does not include the blockade period, this will be the lowest level since 2017.After the data is announced, the market is currently expected to cut interest rates at 96 basis points in 2024, which is the largest at the current period of expected interest rate cuts in the current cycle.This means that the rate cuts of 25 basis points three times have been fully reflected in the market price, and the possibility of the fourth interest rate reduction is 85%. This result will reduce the cost of lending to 4.25%.The first interest rate cut is expected to be held in June next year.

  The data that need to be concerned today are that as of the early week of December 9th, the number of unemployed golds, the monthly price index of imports in the United States in November, and the monthly retail sales of the United States in November.In addition, the British Bank and the European Central Bank will publish interest rate decisions on daily interests.

  US dollar index

  The US dollar index fell sharply yesterday. It lost the 103.00 mark and refreshed the low position for 2 weeks. The current exchange rate trades around 102.80.Except for the technical sales formed by the 104.00 mark, the exchange rate constitutes a certain suppression of the exchange rate. The Fed's interest rate resolution that has attracted attention from the market during the period has maintained stability as scheduled, but the signal of reducing interest rate cuts is the main reason for the decline of the US dollar index.Pay attention to the pressure near 103.30 today, supporting near 102.30.

  Euro/USD

  The euro climbed sharply yesterday, impacting the 1.0900 mark and refreshing 8 trading days high. The current exchange rate trading is near 1.0890.The Fed ’s interest rate resolution that has attracted market attention during the period maintains stability as scheduled and released the pigeon signal. The Federal Reserve’ s interest rate cutting expected heating up is the main reason for supporting the rising euro.In addition, after the exchange rate exceeded the pressure near 1.0800, the involvement of some technical buying markets also exacerbated the increase in the exchange rate.Pay attention to the pressure near 1.1000 today, and supports near 1.0800.

  British/USD