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Source Huaxi Securities
Author Li Lifeng Zhang Haiyan
Market review: This week, the global stock index rose and decline, and the Chinese market declined. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.05%, 1.71%, and 2.95%, respectively.In terms of style, the growth sector represented by TMT is dominant. This week, Google and AMD have released the AI model Gemini and new AI chips, respectively, which catalyzes the concept of AI. The downlink of the real estate chain has dragged down the large -cap stocks, and the Shanghai Certificate 50 fell 3%this week.In terms of foreign exchange, the US dollar index has increased this week, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated, and the release of the eagle signal of the Bank of Japan has caused a sharp fluctuation of the yen exchange rate.
Market outlook: Real estate policies are re -exerting or driving foreign investment back to net inflows, and the trend of A shares at the end of the year should not be too pessimistic.Since November, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated rapidly, but unlike last year, the inflow of northbound capital in the process of appreciation of the exchange rate was not obvious. The main reason was that foreign capital was concerned about the fundamentals of the domestic real estate market.The Politburo meeting in December refine the "standing first and then break", or it means that subsequent real estate policies are expected to re -efforts, including the financing support of real estate enterprises, promoting the implementation of the "three major projects", and further relaxation of the policy of core cities.In mid -December, the Central Economic Work Conference approaches. Under the active policy tone, there is room for restoration in the market's "weak expectations". The current A -share is in a high -value range, and it should not be too pessimistic about the market outlook.
The following aspects are the focus of recent market attention:
1) Overseas aspects, the December Federal Reserve's interest rate conference is expected to continue to suspend interest rate hikes, and at the same time, the interest rate cut transactions are facing challenges.The non -agricultural data of the United States announced in November this week is expected to be over, and the unemployment rate has fallen as a whole, pointing to the US economy is still more tough.Earlier, after the announcement of the US economic data in October, the market once believed that the Fed will turn to pigeon factions and bet on the earliest interest rate cut next year. After the data of this week was announced, the market's interest rate cuts are expected to delay.Next week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate conference has a high probability of maintaining interest rates. Powell spoke or continued to suppress interest rate cuts, and US debt interest rates further trended or faced resistance.
2) The overall tone of the Politburo Conference meets market expectations. The laboratory that "promotes stability, starts first and then breaks" means that the policy of the real estate field will still be warm.In July 2021, the Politburo Conference also mentioned that "correcting sports -type carbon reduction, setting up first and then breaking". At that time, the background was that in the context of "carbon reduction", the traditional high -energy consumption industry had the risk of credit contraction too fast.At present, my country's real estate and other fields are facing major transformations. How to properly handle the relationship between "breaking" and "standing" is very important. It is expected that subsequent real estate policies will still be warm, including the financing support of housing enterprises, promoting the implementation of the "three major projects", etc. EssenceIn addition, the meeting also mentioned "strengthening the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthening economic propaganda and public opinion guidance", etc. Next year, policy will further develop in improving social expectations and boosting development confidence in development next year.
3) The main reason for the continuous outflow of foreign capital is concerns about the fundamental aspects of domestic real estate. The re -efforts of subsequent real estate policies will become a turning point for foreign capital.From August to the present, the northbound funds have been out of A shares for 5 consecutive months, with a cumulative net sales scale of 184.4 billion yuan.Moody's rating was negative to the negative Chinese rating on Tuesday.Since the end of October, the net inflow of foreign capital has not obvious in a round of A -shares rebounding with the appreciation of the RMB. It is mainly because funds have some concerns about the fundamentals of the domestic real estate market.From the perspective of the Politburo Meeting, the policy "stabilize real estate and stabilize the expectation" signal is clear. The subsequent Central Economic Work Conference will make detailed deployment of the real estate sector, and real estate expects to improve foreign capital or turn to net inflows.
4) Economic "weak expectations" is expected to gradually repair, and the trend of A shares at the end of the year should not be too pessimistic.Since the July Politburo meeting, a series of policies for steady growth and active capital markets have been introduced since the Politburo meeting.In terms of medium and long -term dimensions, we believe that we should not be overly pessimistic at the current position. At the end of the year, important meetings are approaching. Under the active policy tone, there is room for repair in the market's "weak expectations".From the perspective of valuation and risk premium, the price -earnings ratio of the CSI 300 has fallen to 11%in the past ten years, and the risk premium has risen to nearly three years.In terms of profitability, according to our prediction, the growth rate of non-financial A-share profit in 2024 is expected to improve slightly compared with this year, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 8%-10%.On the one hand, the growth rate of PPI next year is expected to gradually become correct. On the other hand, with the support of macro policy, the economic growth rate will return to the trend steady level.
In terms of industry configuration: The speed of rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature. The style of large and small disk may be short -term due to relative valuation price comparison.In terms of configuration, the low -valuation dividend sector with abundant cash flow is used as the cockpit stone. The areas that benefit from the improvement of industrial catalysis and policy expectations are the main line of the midterm: such as Huawei Industrial Chain, Semiconductor, Consumer Electronics, Medicine, etc.